Will there be enough recycled materials for batteries in the EU?

Today, batteries play a central role in the storage and distribution of energy for a wide range of applications and sectors: Electric Vehicles (EVs), electronics, stationary storage, and even industry. Their performance, such as capacity, lifespan, or safety, strongly depends on their composition, and more specifically on the chemistry of the positive electrode.

The figure below shows the main applications for batteries, classified according to their composition and capacity.

In the field of electric mobility, two chemistries currently dominate the market:

• Chemistry Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (NMC), whose performance varies according to the relative proportions of these three metals,
• Chemistry Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) which has a lower cost and a longer life, but offers a lower energy density than NMC batteries.

These two technologies rely on the use of critical metals, whose availability and environmental impact raise major challenges. Recycling electric vehicle batteries is therefore an essential lever to secure metal supplies and reduce the environmental footprint of batteries.

Recycling is also a regulatory issue. The battery regulation (EU) 2023/1542 imposes ambitious targets: minimum recycling efficiency rates and quotas for the incorporation of recycled materials in new batteries by 2030. The aim of this study is therefore to predict the need for recycled metals and the volumes that can be recycled from european 100% electric vehicles, in order to see whether the targets can be met.

To begin with, in order to predict the need for virgin and recycled metals for the electric mobility sector, it is essential to anticipate the evolution of the composition of batteries sold in the EU. Three scenarios were considered:

• LFP Scenario : Market predominance by LFP chemistry. Already widespread in Asia, it is less expensive but offers more limited range.
• Nickel-rich Scenario : Predominance of high-nickel NMC chemistry (NMC811 / NMC622). These offer better range performance and are currently favoured in Europe and North America.
• Innovation Scenario : Chemistries currently under development surpass the performance of LFP and NMC and dominate the market (solid-state LFP, sodium-ion, etc.).

The graphs below show the projected compositions. The values for 2015, 2020 and 2025 are based on actual EU vehicle sales data. Subsequent years are based on projections specific to each scenario. For further information, the results followthe Nickel-rich scenario, This is considered to be the most relevant for the EU, where battery life and capacity remain decisive criteria for users.

Next, another key stage in the analysis involves estimating sales of electric vehicles, in order to have a clearer picture of the market. volumes to which the different battery scenarios can be applied. The study focuses solely on 100 % electric vehicles, not including hybrids.

The graph on the left below shows sales trends in France and the EU between 2010 and 2024. The trends are very similar on both scales, with a strong acceleration from 2019, followed by a decline between 2023 and 2024, probably linked to the reduction in purchase subsidies.

The graph on the right shows the scenarios envisaged for sales:

• Optimistic Scenario : sales continuously increase, in line with the European target of 100% electric vehicle sales by 2035.
• Business-as-usual Scenario (BaU): the recent drop in sales signals a lasting slowdown, with a shift to 100% electric around 2045.
• Pessimistic Scenario : 100% electric is still not achieved by 2050.

Given the public debates around postponing the ban on the sale of combustion vehicles in 2035 and the reduction of purchase incentives, the optimistic scenario appears uncertain. The BaU scenario would seem the most realistic for the continuation of the study.

Together with sales volumes, certain assumptions about service life, export rates and recyclability can be used to estimate the volumes available for recycling.

• La first life lasts an average of 15 years, 35% are recycled, 60% are reused, 5% are exported (batteries resold outside the EU)
• The second life lasts on average 10 years, 90% go to recycling, 5% to export, and 5% are lost (batteries not collected).
• European battery gigafactories generate recyclable waste (scraps). The scrap production considered assumes an initial average rate of 50%, continuously decreasing until stabilising at 10% by 2035.

The graphs below show the volumes sold for primary use according to the sales scenarios, the volumes available for secondary use, recycling and scrap volumes. The results are valid only for these assumptions, as a change of 2-3 years in the service life or export rate can shift the availability of recycled metals by several years.

By combining vehicle sales volumes, batteries reaching end of life, and chemistry scenarios, it is possible to estimate the total metal requirements, the share that should come from recycling, as well as the quantities actually recoverable. European battery regulation indeed imposes, from 2030 onwards, recycling rate targets for lithium, cobalt, and nickel, as well as quotas for incorporating these recycled metals into new batteries.

The results below show the results for the lithium and cobalt, for a nickel-rich chemistry scenario, and for all the sales scenarios previously defined. These estimates assume the recycling of all the batteries and production off-cuts considered, without taking account of actual industrial recycling capacity in the EU, which was not included in the study.

In the optimistic scenario, pressure on recycled metals could appear between 2030 and 2040 because supply would not be sufficient. For the BaU scenario, which is considered to be the most realistic, and the pessimistic scenario, the results show that demand for recycled cobalt would also be insufficient between 2030 and 2045, while the need for recycled lithium could be covered.

All scenarios, on the other hand, shows that the quantity of recycled materials would not be sufficient to cover total demand for metals, implying a need for mining raw materials.

The results of this study depend on the assumptions used, which may change according to the political and economic context. In a scenario where NMC batteries remain predominant, the European targets for recycled metals could be met for lithium and nickel through the recycling of electric vehicle batteries, whether the transition to 100% electric takes place in 2035 or is delayed by about ten years. For recycled cobalt, demand could exceed production between 2030 and 2045.

This, however, assumes the recycling of all end-of-life batteries and production waste. It is therefore essential to accelerate the development of industrial recycling plants, particularly for NMC batteries. Securing their supply through waste generated by gigafactories is a key challenge while waiting for vehicles on the market since 2019 to reach end of life.

Finally, this study has certain limitations: it does not take into account actual industrial recycling capacities in the EU and focuses solely on 100 % electric vehicles, without including hybrid vehicles.

Finally, the study deliberately focused on a nickel-rich NMC scenario, which is more representative of European consumers’ expectations regarding range. The results could change significantly in a scenario dominated by LFP batteries, whose recycling remains underdeveloped in Europe, as it is considered less profitable due to the low value of recovered metals. Moreover, apart from lithium, the regulation sets no specific target for this chemistry. The NMC scenario therefore appears as a favourable case for recycling, whereas LFP dominance could make it more difficult to achieve European targets.